ASCD

October 2007 | Volume = 65 |=20 Number 2
Early Intervention at = Every=20 Age Pages 28-33

By promptly reacting to student = distress=20 signals, schools can redirect potential dropouts = onto=20 the path to graduation.

The alarm has sounded. The = United=20 States has a high school graduation crisis. The = crisis=20 does not stem, however, from any precipitous = drop in the=20 percentage of students who graduate. In fact, = graduation=20 rates are about as high as they have ever been. = What=20 makes current graduation rates alarming is a = reality of=20 the new U.S. economy: It is practically = impossible for=20 individuals lacking a high school diploma to = earn a=20 living or participate meaningfully in civic = life. Adding=20 to the urgency is evidence of disproportionately = low=20 graduation rates among low-income and minority = youth.=20 Recent estimates suggest that between one-third = and=20 one-half of minorities do not earn a high school = diploma=20 (Education Week, 2007).

Policymakers and educators = have tended=20 to view dropping out of high school in two = contradictory=20 ways. On the one hand, they view it as = predictable,=20 given the high dropout rates in certain = demographic=20 categories and geographic locations. At the same = time,=20 they view the experiences that precede a = specific=20 student's dropping out as mysterious, difficult = to=20 predict, and idiosyncratic. Some students = unaccountably=20 =E2=80=9Cbecome bored with school=E2=80=9D; = =E2=80=9Cfall in with the wrong=20 crowd=E2=80=9D; or experience a jarring life = event, such as a=20 pregnancy or a parent's unemployment, that = precipitates=20 their dropping out of school.

Our research suggests that, = on the=20 contrary, many students who drop out of high = school send=20 strong distress signals for years. These = students are=20 metaphorically waving their hands and asking for = help.=20 By paying attention, schools and districts can = develop=20 interventions that can help keep potential = dropouts on=20 track to graduation.

Policymakers and educators = face=20 several challenges in devising these early = intervention=20 strategies. The first is to figure out which = signals to=20 look for and when to look for them. These = signals form=20 an early warning system that schools can use to = identify=20 students who are at risk of dropping out. The = second=20 challenge is to develop a set of structures and=20 practices within schools that enable educators = to review=20 data and pinpoint those students who are sending = signals. The third challenge is to determine the = help=20 that students need, on the basis of the signals = they=20 send and their responses to previous = interventions.

Early Indicators

During the past 25 years, a = great deal=20 of research has focused on why students drop = out. This=20 research typically uses data from complex = surveys or=20 in-depth interviews with students, none of which = are=20 commonly available to schools and school = districts. We=20 wondered whether the ordinary data that school = districts=20 keep in student records could operate as a = crystal ball=20 of sorts to predict which students might drop = out.

We began our research in = Philadelphia,=20 using data on several cohorts of students that = became=20 available to us when we established a number of = Talent=20 Development High Schools and Middle Grades = Programs in=20 the city. Johns Hopkins developed these school = models,=20 and the Philadelphia Education Fund was the = local reform=20 partner. Schools implementing the Talent = Development=20 model were located in areas with low graduation=20 rates.

The school district data = that we=20 examined included test scores, report card = grades,=20 behavior marks, attendance records, special = education=20 status, English language learner status, and = demographic=20 categories. We identified the following = indicators using=20 Philadelphia data. However, we have been able to = replicate them with slight modifications in = other=20 cities, such as Boston and Indianapolis.

Signals in the Middle Grades

A high percentage of = dropouts send=20 distress signals in the middle grades, long = before they=20 actually drop out of school. We followed an = entire=20 cohort of students in Philadelphia who entered = the 6th=20 grade in September 1996=E2=80=94approximately = 14,000 students=E2=80=94to=20 determine their dropout status six years later. = Then,=20 going back to the 6th grade data, we looked for = any=20 signals=E2=80=94a poor course grade, a low test = score=E2=80=94that would=20 give students at least a 75 percent = probability=20 of dropping out of high school. We chose the 75 = percent=20 threshold because it enables schools and = districts to=20 focus their scarce resources on students who are = at high=20 risk of dropping out.

In Philadelphia, we found = that a 6th=20 grader with even one of the following four = signals had=20 at least a three in four chance of dropping out = of high=20 school:=20

A final grade of F in mathematics.=20
A final grade of F in English.=20
Attendance below 80 percent for the year.=20
A final =E2=80=9Cunsatisfactory=E2=80=9D = behavior mark in at least=20 one class.

Students with more than one = signal=E2=80=94for=20 example, failing mathematics and missing = a lot of=20 school=E2=80=94had an even higher probability of = dropping out=20 within six years. But we also found that some = students=20 sent just one signal, indicating that various = factors=20 can culminate in dropping out. Students with = failing=20 course grades may struggle with academic skills = and=20 motivation, those with inconsistent attendance = may find=20 little support for schooling at home, and those = with=20 poor behavior marks may have social and = emotional=20 challenges that require attention. The signals = that have=20 the greatest predictive power relate to student = action=20 or behavior in the classroom, rather than to a=20 particular status, such as receiving special = education=20 services.

In a separate analysis, we = looked at=20 indicators for a cohort of 8th graders. For = these=20 students, too, a failing course grade in = mathematics or=20 English or an attendance rate of less than 80 = percent=20 during the year were highly predictive of = dropping out.=20 In fact, more than 50 percent of the students = who=20 ultimately dropped out sent one or more of these = signals=20 during 8th grade, meaning that more than half of = the=20 dropouts in the cohort could have been = identified even=20 before they entered high school.

Although all distress = signals should=20 be taken seriously in the middle grades, schools = should=20 pay special attention to students who send a = signal in=20 6th grade. The earlier a student first sends a = signal,=20 the greater the risk that he or she will drop = out of=20 school.

Signals in High School

Ninth grade is a treacherous = year for=20 students, particularly those in large urban = districts.=20 Even students who were doing moderately well in = the=20 middle grades can be knocked off the path to = graduation=20 by the new academic demands and social pressures = of high=20 school. Among students who sent their first = serious=20 distress signal in 9th grade, those who earned = fewer=20 than two credits or attended school less than 70 = percent=20 of the time had at least a 75 percent chance of = dropping=20 out of school. Most of these students did not = drop out=20 immediately but attempted 9th grade courses for = another=20 one or two years before finally giving up on = school=20 altogether.

Eighty percent of the = dropouts we=20 studied in Philadelphia had sent a signal in the = middle=20 grades or during the first year of high school. = The=20 majority of U.S. high school dropouts are = enrolled in=20 such large urban districts (Balfanz & = Legters,=20 2004). Consequently, an effective early warning = system=20 could identify=E2=80=94at least by 9th = grade=E2=80=94the vast majority=20 of future dropouts nationwide.

What Can Schools Do?

Our experience with urban = middle=20 schools and high schools suggests that several=20 strategies can help keep students on the path to = graduation.

Intervening in the Middle Grades

Philadelphia is currently = piloting a=20 middle grades program=E2=80=94Keeping Middle = Grades Students on=20 the Graduation Path=E2=80=94that seeks to = develop tools and=20 practices for responding to early indicators = that signal=20 potential dropouts. Developed through the joint = efforts=20 of the School District of Philadelphia, the = Philadelphia=20 Education Fund, and the Johns Hopkins University = Center=20 for the Social Organization of Schools, the = program is=20 based on two fundamental assumptions: (1) that = students'=20 signals are surface indicators of deeper = academic=20 problems, behavioral issues, or responses to the = home or=20 school environment that schools need to identify = and=20 address; and (2) that only a small percentage of = students will need the most intensive and costly = interventions. For the majority of students, = lower-cost=20 schoolwide strategies that seek to prevent the = problems=20 will suffice.

Schools can identify = strategies for=20 addressing each signal=E2=80=94such as course = failure, poor=20 attendance, and behavior issues=E2=80=94using a = three-tiered=20 school-based model for prevention and = intervention. The=20 top tier consists of effective whole-school=20 preventative measures. In urban districts = that=20 struggle with high dropout rates, these = whole-school=20 measures can keep an estimated 70=E2=80=9380 = percent of the=20 students on track to graduation during the = middle=20 grades. For example, a school might institute a=20 schoolwide attendance program that highlights = the=20 importance of attendance; tracks attendance = daily at the=20 classroom level; has an adult in the building = respond to=20 the first absence of each student; and provides = weekly=20 recognition and monthly social rewards (such as = pizza=20 parties or field trips) to students with perfect = or=20 near-perfect attendance.

The second tier of = targeted=20 interventions is aimed at the 10=E2=80=9320 = percent of=20 students who require additional focused = supports. A=20 student who continues to miss school despite a=20 schoolwide attendance program might sign an = attendance=20 contract or attend a conference at school with = family=20 members; the student may then receive a brief = daily=20 check-in from a school staff member. This adult = might=20 acknowledge that the student is in school and = mention=20 that he or she looks forward to seeing the = student the=20 next day and will call home if the student does = not show=20 up.

Finally, the third tier of=20 intensive interventions is reserved for = the 5=E2=80=9310=20 percent of students who need small-group or = one-on-one=20 supports. A student with severe attendance = problems=20 might be assigned to a team of adults at the = school=20 (including, for example, a counselor, an = assistant=20 principal, and a teacher) who will work together = to=20 understand the source of the attendance problem = and try=20 to solve it. If the problem is too deep-rooted = for the=20 school alone to resolve, the team will arrange = for the=20 student and his or her family to receive = appropriate=20 social service supports.

Using the three-tiered = model, schools=20 in the pilot program take a hard look at what = they are=20 actually doing to address attendance, behavior, = and=20 academic performance. Our experience has shown = us that=20 schools are often doing far less in each of = these areas=20 than they think.

To help schools identify = which=20 students send signals and how they respond to=20 interventions, we developed an on-demand,=20 classroom-level data program. Teachers can use = this=20 program to track individual students on a = day-today=20 basis so they can quickly identify students who = need to=20 move to a more intensive level of intervention.=20 Likewise, they can reevaluate students who have=20 responded to intensive interventions. This early = indicator tracking tool has proved so useful = that=20 Philadelphia plans to make it available to other = schools=20 through the districtwide integrated data = management=20 system.

Keeping an Eye on 9th Graders

The best thing a high school = can do to=20 keep students on track to graduation is to = develop a=20 comprehensive set of strategies that includes = attention=20 to climate, curriculum, and credit accumulation. = At a=20 minimum, high schools need to set the conditions = for 9th=20 grade success by making sure that the curriculum = and=20 associated supports help fill gaps in = mathematics and=20 reading comprehension. Our work with schools in=20 low-income areas across the United States = indicates that=20 the majority of students in these schools are = two to=20 three years below grade level when they start = 9th grade.=20 They need an age-appropriate curriculum that = enables=20 them to catch up on the intermediate skills that = high=20 school courses assume that students have.

At the same time, schools = need to be=20 organized so that they can flag students who are = having=20 difficulty early on. Data from urban districts = (Roderick=20 & Camburn, 1999) indicate that struggling = 9th=20 graders typically send their signals in the = first or=20 second marking period=E2=80=94or even during the = first few weeks=20 of school. The Talent Development High School = model (see=20 www.csos.jhu.edu/tdhs), = developed by urban=20 educators and Johns Hopkins researchers, = organizes 9th=20 grade teachers into four-person = interdisciplinary teams.=20 Each team compares notes about its students' = classroom=20 performance and collaboratively decides on = strategies=20 for dealing with those who are having = trouble.

Finally, schools need to = make=20 available to struggling or disengaged students = various=20 avenues through which they can experience = short-term=20 school success. These include such activities as = debates, artistic and performance experiences, = and=20 service learning projects, with opportunities to = participate linked to good attendance and course = effort.

Reengaging Out-of-School Youth

Despite the best efforts of = schools to=20 keep students on the path to graduation, some = students=20 will always drop out. Some will try to return to = school,=20 but the traditional high school format may not = serve=20 them well because of their age, lack of credits, = or=20 personal responsibilities. In Philadelphia, a = group of=20 partners=E2=80=94including the school district, = city agencies,=20 nonprofit groups that advocate for children and = public=20 education, workforce development organizations, = and=20 research universities=E2=80=94has begun to = collaborate on a=20 multiple-pathways system that will enable = out-of-school=20 youth to earn their diplomas.

This collaboration, known as = Project=20 U-Turn (http://www.projectuturn.net/) = and led by=20 the Philadelphia Youth Network, envisions a = system that=20 offers opportunities for students on the basis = of their=20 age, literacy and numeracy levels, and credits = earned.=20 By examining district data, the Project U-Turn = partners=20 learned that although the largest group of = dropouts had=20 earned fewer than eight credits despite being at = least=20 17 years old, they had few opportunities to earn = a=20 diploma other than reenrolling in traditional = high=20 schools, which were hardly enthused about taking = in=20 older students with histories of failure. The=20 partnership is currently working to design and = fund new=20 education options for these students. In = addition, youth=20 who have dropped out just shy of graduation need = opportunities to fast-track their high school = diplomas=20 while earning credits from a community = college.

The Price of Not Intervening

Data from large urban = districts and=20 our work with urban middle schools and high = schools have=20 shown us that, for the majority of students who = drop out=20 of high school, the major cause is not an = unanticipated life event or disinterest in = receiving a=20 diploma, but rather school failure. Moreover, = the vast=20 majority of dropouts stay enrolled in school for = an=20 additional year or two after their first = experience of=20 course failure. This continuing connection with = school,=20 however tenuous, suggests a window of time = during which=20 schools can redirect potential dropouts back = onto the=20 path to high school graduation.

It also tells us that what = schools do=20 matters. Growing numbers of high schools have = beaten the=20 odds and kept their students on the path to = graduation.=20 Good research-based and practice-validated = interventions=20 can improve student attendance, behavior, and = effort;=20 academic interventions can improve course = performance=20 more directly. The U.S. graduation rate crisis = is not=20 fueled by students who lack the potential or = desire to=20 graduate, but rather by secondary schools that = are not=20 organized to prevent students from falling off = the path=20 to graduation or to intervene when they do.

Finally, we need to = recognize that=20 some middle schools and high schools are = overwhelmed by=20 the number of potential dropouts who walk = through their=20 doors. Research shows that approximately 50 = percent of=20 the dropouts in the United States are produced = by 15=20 percent of the high schools, all of which serve=20 populations with high poverty rates (Balfanz = &=20 Legters, 2004). Further, most of these high = schools have=20 two or more feeder middle schools. Dropout rates = for an=20 entering cohort can top 50 percent, meaning that = hundreds and sometimes thousands of students at = each=20 school are in need of comprehensive and = sustained=20 supports. These schools need to have in place = strong=20 prevention and intervention systems aimed at = improving=20 student attendance, behavior, effort, and course = performance.

The need for strong programs = has=20 significant implications for how we staff and = fund the=20 secondary schools that educate economically=20 disadvantaged students. Implementing the = whole-school=20 reforms and multitiered prevention and = intervention=20 systems that these schools need requires = financial and=20 human resources equal to the task, along with=20 high-quality technical assistance. High-poverty = schools=20 will also likely benefit from partnerships with = external=20 organizations skilled at delivering integrated = student=20 supports as well as with community organizations = and=20 national service organizations that can provide = the=20 necessary people power for mentoring and = tutoring on a=20 sufficient scale.

Without question, there are = financial=20 costs associated with intervening with students = who are=20 on the path to dropping out. But the price of = not=20 intervening=E2=80=94in terms of individual lives = that do not=20 reach their potential and the broader social = costs of=20 having a class of citizens who lack a basic = academic=20 credential=E2=80=94is incalculably greater.

References

Balfanz, R., & = Legters, N.=20 (2004). Locating the dropout crisis: Which high = schools=20 produce the nation's dropouts? In G. Orfield = (Ed.),=20 Dropouts in America (pp. 57=E2=80=9384). = Cambridge, MA:=20 Harvard Education Press.

Education Week. (2007). = Diplomas=20 Count 2007: Ready for what? Preparing students = for=20 college, careers, and life after high = school.=20 Bethesda, MD: Editorial Projects in Education = Research=20 Center.

Roderick, M., & = Camburn, E.=20 (1999). Risk and recovery from course failure in = the=20 early years of high school. American = Educational=20 Research Journal, 36, = 303=E2=80=93343.